Cathie Wood remains deeply bullish on Bitcoin—but her latest forecast comes with an important qualification.
In an interview with Morningstar’s Valerio Baselli, the ARK Invest founder and CEO reaffirmed her view that Bitcoin is more than a speculative asset. She describes it as the first global, digital, private and rules-based monetary system: a network that could operate independently of direct government control.
That long-term vision has not changed, even as Bitcoin has fallen from its previous peak. If anything, Wood says the recent price weakness has strengthened her conviction in the broader investment thesis. But one development has forced ARK Invest to reconsider the scale of Bitcoin’s potential: the rapid rise of stablecoins.
Wood acknowledges that stablecoins have captured part of the role that she and others once expected Bitcoin to play. In emerging markets, people worried about the declining value of their local currencies may choose dollar-backed stablecoins instead. These digital tokens offer exposure to the US dollar and are generally supported by dollar or dollar-based assets.
That shift has affected ARK’s Bitcoin assumptions. The firm’s earlier bull-case forecast called for Bitcoin to reach US$1.5 million by 2030. Wood says the growing importance of stablecoins could reduce that estimate by approximately US$200,000 to US$300,000, implying a revised bull-case range of roughly US$1.2 million to US$1.3 million. The interview does not present a formally updated ARK research report or identify one definitive new target.
Wood also challenges the idea that Bitcoin should consistently behave like “digital gold.” While gold has risen sharply, Bitcoin has not always moved in tandem. She cites a correlation of approximately 0.14 between the two assets since 2019 and says gold appeared to lead Bitcoin during at least the previous two market cycles.
Another explanation for Bitcoin’s recent weakness, in Wood’s view, is selling by early adopters, often known as “OGs.” Some of these investors believe Bitcoin has become too closely connected to traditional finance. Wood takes the opposite position. Drawing on ideas associated with economist Arthur Laffer, she argues that broader participation from traditional financial institutions could strengthen Bitcoin over time and help it develop into a global monetary system.
The result is a bullish outlook tempered by greater realism. Wood still sees Bitcoin as a potentially transformative monetary network, but she now recognizes that stablecoins may absorb some of the demand once assigned entirely to Bitcoin. Her forecast remains ambitious, yet the interview makes clear that it is a long-term thesis—not a guarantee that Bitcoin will reach any particular price.
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